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RMSI Analyzes Potential Risks To Life & Property of the Artificial Lakes Breach in Tibet

August 2004

RMSI, a global IT services company, announced today that their risk modeling division, having a decade of experience in risk assessment studies, has analyzed the potential risk of the artificial lake formed on Pareechu river, a tributary of Sutlej, in the Tibet region. The impact of flash flooding along the banks of the river Sutlej in Himachal Pradesh, triggered by the breach of the landslide that blocked Pareechu, was analyzed in terms of extent and depth of flooding, population affected and property losses. Three potential scenarios based on different depths of the breach including the worst-case of full breach of 60 meters were analyzed.

Due to the hilly terrain conditions and the valley shape along the Sutlej, the flood extents are not expected to go far from the river channel but flood depths are expected to be very high. In the worst-case scenario flood extents up to 1.2 km and flood depths up to 20 m with averages of km and 10 m respectively are expected, said RMSI chief hydrologist Dr. Murthy Bachu.

As per Adityam Krovvidi, Head of Risk Management Services at RMSI, the risk analysis is based on an internally sponsored study involving development of a flood model applying international best practices and the following impacts could be expected in the event of a flood caused by the worst-case.

The flood damage is expected even at far off places like Rampur that is 230 km away from the lake. The flood depth on the banks at this place is estimated to be about 5 m.

About 5 lakh people are likely to be affected. Property worth Rs. 60 crores is estimated to be at risk.

The study used Census 2001 data, published information on the lake and other available in-house data. RMSI conducted similar studies in the past including 2001 Gujarat earthquake and 1999 Orissa cyclone vulnerability studies.